The Holiday season is no longer just about big discounts, but it is a crucial period for long-term customer growth. In 2024, success belonged to brands that went beyond basic batch-and-blast. It went to those who unified customer, product and behavioral data, acted on signals in real time and made every campaign count.
2024 proved it:
- 64% of Black Friday purchases came from New Buyers: but only a fraction made a second purchase, highlighting the need for lifecycle-focused strategies.
- 51% of Black Friday enterprise sales came from repeat buyers (up +2.3 pts YoY), showing ongoing customer engagement.
- Yes, the average retailer could identify just 29% of their BFCM shoppers. Apparel led at 36%, and brands with higher ID rate saw stronger repeat revenue.
The 2025 BFCM Landscape: The New Realities of Retail Marketers
As we look ahead, the environment impacting holiday campaigns has shifted in a few key ways this year. The data and lessons from 2024 reveal much more than just tactics, they point to opportunities facing every retail marketer.
Smaller Teams
With fewer people and shrinking budgets, retail marketers are under pressure to deliver more with less. That means relying on efficient technology and platforms that do more of the heavy lifting with automation, smarter workflows and real-time insights becoming non-negotiable.
Last year: The average retailer could only identify 29% of their BFCM shoppers, making it clear that every efficiency gain and improvement in identification can drive outsized results when resources are tight.
Inbox Impact
Reaching shoppers in the inbox is tougher than ever with iOS18, advanced spam filtering and AI-generated email summaries raising the bar for visibility and engagement. Simply increasing send volume doesn’t cut through the noise. This year it takes true relevance, optimized deliverability and signal-based triggers to get noticed.
Last year: 51% of Black Friday enterprise sales same from repeat buyers, up from 44% the year before. Proving the value of nurturing your loyal base amidst growing channel complexity.
Media Inflation
Ad costs continue to climb as market shifts, like Amazon, Shein and Temu pulling out of advertising, drive up competition and prices for everyone else. With budgets under pressure, precise identification and smarter targeting are more essential than ever to make each dollar count.
Last year: 64% of Black Friday purchases came from new buyers, up from 53%, but only a fraction made a second purchase highlighting the need to maximize ROI on every acquisition and move new shoppers down the path to loyalty.
Unified Data, Real-Time Activation
Traditional ESPs and patchwork tech stacks kept crucial product, behavior, and customer signals scattered—causing brands to miss high-value moments like product views or cart adds. In contrast, leaders in 2024 used unified platforms to turn unknown browsers into known buyers and real-time signals into performance.
- Apparel: 36% ID rate (industry high), +3.7% YoY repeat purchase rate, and higher cross-category sales.
- Department Stores: 31% ID rate, +6.5% order volume, and remarkable value reactivation among retained customers.
Signal-Based Success Stories
The 2024 Data:
- Campaigns triggered by real-time behaviors—abandoned cart, back in stock, price drop—had the highest conversion-per-send, with abandoned checkout at 15x, and abandoned cart at 8x, baseline.
- “Welcome” and “back in stock” campaigns lifted 1st purchase conversions, while site exit pop-ups drove the best onsite click-to-conversion rates.
- Retailers using live, unified signals saw up to 133% more first-purchase conversions with strategic triggers and 5% list growth via proactive identification.
The Future of the Inbox: AI, Conversational Prompts & Customer-Led KPIs
2024 wasn’t just about sending more. High-performing brands shifted focus:
- From opens and click rates to customer lifetime metrics: retention, purchase frequency, AOV, LTV.
- From static offers to dynamic, in-email experiences leveraging AI and product-specific prompts—meeting customers where they are, with what they want.
- From channel-driven cadence to signal-based journeys, responding instantly to lifecycle movement.
The Takeaway: BFCM Is More Than a Moment
Black Friday, Cyber Monday and the Q4 peak are the start of the customer journey, not the end. The best brands go beyond one-and-done acquisition focusing on:
- Rapid ID and capture of holiday traffic
- Automated, signal-based engagement
- Segmenting and nurturing to drive that pivotal second, then third and fourth, purchases
Looking to have a happy holiday season — and beyond?
Talk to a retail strategist